Good Thursday Morning, Fellow Seekers.
It’s already well-established that Pennsylvania is one of the oldest states, by age of its population, in the nation. It’s also well established that older voters wield some pretty significant electoral clout.
So that makes some recent AARP polling data focusing on Pennsylvania and other 2022 battleground states worthy of your consideration on this penultimate day of the working week.
AARP, through a team of bipartisan pollsters, sampled the opinions of at least 1,200 respondents in at least 10 battleground states, including Pennsylvania. All respondents were likely voters aged 18 and older, though the poll oversampled among voters aged 50 and older for a more thorough analysis, AARP said in a statement.
The bottom line: Pennsylvania women aged 50-plus are a force to be reckoned with this midterm cycle. They account for nearly a third (32 percent) of all likely voters, and more than half (53 percent) of likely voters aged 50 and older.
They’re motivated: Nearly nine in 10 voters (87 percent) in this influential bloc are “extremely motivated” to vote in Pennsylvania’s nationally watched races for U.S. Senate and the Governor’s Office.
They are not amused: Nearly eight in 10 (79 percent) say the country is on the wrong track.
It’s still the economy: Nearly half (49 percent) put gas prices and the cost of food (27 percent) at the top of their priorities list. And with an eye on the future, more than nine in 10 (93 percent) rate Social Security and Medicare (83 percent) as very or extremely important to them.
Zooming in for a head-to-head look in the key contests.
Governor: Among all voters, Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s elected attorney general, is in a dead heat, 48-47 percent against Republican nominee Sen. Doug Mastriano, according to the AARP poll.
Women aged 50-plus favor Shapiro 55-41 percent over Mastriano, while men aged 50-plus break 54-40 percent to Mastriano, the poll showed.
Overall, Shapiro’s favorables (47-34 percent) are stronger than Mastriano’s (37-44 percent)
“Shapiro is currently ahead thanks to having stronger support from Democrats than Mastriano receives from Republicans,” according to the AARP‘s analysis. “All indications point to this race being competitive in November, with 50+ voters, who make up 61 percent of the likely voting electorate, poised to make the difference.”
U.S. Senate: Among all voters, Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor, holds a narrow 49-46 percent lead over his GOP challenger, television doctor Mehmet Oz, according to the poll
Women aged 50-plus favor Fetterman 56-40 percent, while men favored Oz 54-42 percent, the poll showed.
Overall, Fetterman’s public image is stronger (46-35 percent favorable) than Oz’s (30-63 percent).
“A sizable gender gap exists, with women putting Fetterman in the lead, but men, especially those 50+, keeping Oz competitive,” according to the AARP’s analysis.
It’s Complicated: “Although the Democratic candidates have stronger images than their GOP opponents and are ahead on the ballots, a challenging political environment exists for Democrats in the Keystone State,” according to the AARP analysis. “Republicans hold a slight 47- 45 percent edge on the generic Congressional ballot, while President [Joe] Biden’s job approval is significantly underwater (36 percent approve/61 percent disapprove)
Election Day is Nov. 8.
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WHYY-FM explains what a heat emergency means to Philadelphia residents.
State officials have finally certified the primary election results in all but three of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties — Berks, Lancaster, and Fayette counties, where there’s still pending litigation — the Associated Press reports (via WITF-FM).
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City & State Pa. runs down five state Senate races to watch this campaign cycle.
Republicans sketched out their plans for immigration reform if they recapture the House in November. Roll Call has the details.
Here’s your #Pennsylvania Instagram of the Day:
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What Goes On
10 a.m., 333 Market St., Harrisburg: Independent Regulatory Review Commission
Gov. Tom Wolf has no public schedule today.
Here’s one from The Record Company for your Thursday morning. It’s ‘Off the Ground.’
Thursday’s Gratuitous Soccer Link
The Guardian runs down the biggest transfer moves across the European mens leagues so far this summer.
And now you’re up to date.
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